How it works

Where the data comes from

Everything on The Boot Room is built from official data, refreshed automatically every two hours:

Fantasy Premier League: fixtures, results, each player's expected goals and assists for every match, minutes, starts, bonus, prices, ownership, transfers and fitness flags.
The Premier League injury list: each club's injured and suspended players.
ESPN: starting line-ups and positions from each club's recent matches in all competitions.

Team ratings and fixture difficulty

Each club gets an attack and a defence rating from its recent matches: mostly expected goals (xG) for and against, plus some weight on actual goals, with recent matches counting most and an allowance for home advantage. Early in the season the ratings are pulled towards the league average until there are enough matches to trust.

Fixture difficulty rates the opponent only: what an average team would expect to score and concede against them, home or away. Fixtures are split into five equal bands, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).

Player projections

For each fixture, a player's projected FPL points come from his chance of starting and expected minutes, his goals and assists (from his xG and xA per 90, scaled by how many goals his team is projected to score), his clean sheet chance, his bonus rate, defensive contribution points and appearance points, less an allowance for goals conceded for goalkeepers and defenders. Availability flags reduce a player's projection, and recover gradually for later weeks. A player's numbers are pulled towards typical values for his position until he has played enough minutes.

Predicted line-ups

Each player's chance of starting comes from his club's last six matches in all competitions, with recent matches and league or European games counting most, and a boost for starting two of the last three. Players are placed in the shape the club used in its last main match.

What the model can't see

Press conferences, tactical changes, a manager's preferences, weather, or anything that hasn't yet shown up in the data. It also ignores price, except where a list says otherwise. Use it as a well-informed shortlist, not a final answer.

Questions

Why do the numbers change during the week?

Every refresh brings new results, fitness flags and line-ups, and the projections update with them.

Is it the same model on every page?

Yes. Captain picks, transfer tips, price-change value, line-ups and the chip planner all use the same projections.

Who runs The Boot Room?

An independent FPL player. It's a fan project and isn't affiliated with the Premier League.